2024 Hurricane season - Warmth & La Niña: up to 25 storms

We are a little more than a week away from the start of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the official forecast by the National Hurricane Center is out. Once again, it is calling for an incredibly busy season, with their highest number of storms ever forecast.

The National Hurricane Center released their forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season and calls for 17 to 25 storms to be named, of which 8 to 13 could reach hurricane status and between 4 and 7 could become major hurricanes, category 3 or above. There is an 85 percent chance for an above-average season with La Niña returning by the time the peak arrives.

Many ingredients go into a season being active, but the main drivers for future development are sea surface temperatures and the presence/absence of El Niño Southern Oscillation. This season calls for El Niño’s counterpart, La Niña, to be present and for temperatures to continue to be well above average, giving the fuel for storms to ignite and feed off from. Just to put it in perspective, sea surface waters over the Atlantic are between 2 and 3 degrees F above average for this time of year, they are where they would usually be in August.

Let’s recall that in the 2023 hurricane season, despite having an El Niño, the sea surface temperatures were warm, and we ended up with the fourth most active season on records with 20 named storms, 7 became hurricanes and there were 3 of them reaching major hurricane status. We had Idalia, a major hurricane that made landfall in Florida, and Harold which came with a quick punch to southern Texas, and Tropical Storm Ophelia which made landfall in North Carolina. The majority of the rest remained over the open Atlantic waters, without affecting direct landmasses.

Those were in the past, now let’s look to the future. This year’s forecast calls for La Niña to come back just in time for the peak of the season. When we look back, the times when we’ve had warmer than usual sea surface temperatures and a La Niña present, there tends to be more storms than usual and their tracks tend to shift more westward, this often means more landfalls in the Caribbean, and U.S.

This is the time to prepare for the season. Make sure you have a plan, know if you are in an evacuation zone, gather your important documents, and check your insurance policies. Take pictures of the inside and outside of your home. Stay informed with us throughout the season. Our daily tropical updates will be available inside our Breakfast Briefings every morning. It is your one-stop to check all the weather news you need to know for the day.